Discussion in 'Sports Talk' started by lurer, Dec 10, 2008.

  1. give up: Homer Bailey, chris dickerson, alex gonalez
    get: Milton Bradley (Texas Rangers)

    Crazy or possible.
  2. No stinking way! Crazy

  3. crazy...isn't he like a Terrell Owens?
  4. I'm not a Reds fan, I'm an Indians fan, but I gotta agree. This would be a terrible trade.

    Cinci just needs to sit and wait another season for the youth to catch up with each other.

    You guys will have Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Owings in your rotation

    Bruce, Dickerson, Philips, Votto...great young players.

    I don't understand this Hernandez trade. He's been terrible the last couple of years, plagued by injuries, and Bmore just wanted him off the roster because they have Weiters coming up this year.

    While Freel has had injury problems as well, he's hurt because he plays harder than anyone else in the league, and I have to think he's a guy that will be missed in that clubhouse.

    I wouldn't make any trades with the Reds right now. I think you just have to wait a year for the team to gel, and the staff to get more experience. Just hope Dusty doesn't kill your pitchers like he did in Chicago.
  5. we reds fans have to face the truth: there will not be another bullpne like the nasty boys
  6. Yeah, I have heard that Milton is somewhat of a bad attitude guy. What other trades/free agents can we pull off to fill left field?
  7. maybe Rocco Baldelli, a bit of a risk, but you know he has the talent. What would you give for him.
  8. As far as Baldelli goes, I don't want to trade for a guy that can only play one day out of three. If the Reds did that, they'd have to make another trade to fill the void created when Baldelli doesn't play.
  9. good point. Who then? Burell?(pricey)
  10. Or you just get by for another year w/o spending money on an old bat in the outfield, and let Alonso run Votto off of 1B and into the OF.

    It would be one thing if y'all were just a player or two away from being in the race for your division. But if the Indians were in this same situation, I would want them to sit on their wallets, save the money they would spend on "pat-the-bat" and get your youth some more experience. You can add veteran role players to help with the youth, but I don't agree with the idea of bringing in a $10mil+ guy. It gets you nowhere, and can slow down the development of the players that will actually make you division contenders in another year.
  11. I agree with MDis.... if you care to read this, you will see why. It is very long, and I apologize for that, but I am sitting here bored and decided to expound on a few thoughts that I had.

    Look at Pat Burrell:

    He hits around .250, hits a lot of homeruns, and strikes out a lot. He's a defensive liability, and he's also slated to make about $13 or $14 million. HE'S A RIGHT-HANDED ADAM DUNN!

    Some might say "Yeah, but Burrell is so much better than Dunn." Let's look at a few stats....

    Dunn's 2008 Reds stats: 373 AB, 32 HR, 74 RBI, .233 AVG, .373 OBP, .528 SLG

    Burrell's 2008 stats: 536 AB, 33 HR, 86 RBI, .250 AVG, .367 OBP, .507 SLG

    OBP of hitters typically in front of Burrell (2008 stats):

    Jimmy Rollins: .349
    Jayson Werth: .363
    Chase Utley: .380
    Ryan Howard: .339

    OBP of hitters typically in front of Dunn (2008 stats):

    Brandon Phillips: .312
    Joey Votto: .368
    Ken Griffey Jr: .355
    Jay Bruce: .314

    Let's look at it like this...

    Take an average of 500 AB's per player per year for each of the 4 players/team mentioned above, and Pat Burrell hits with approximately 41 more runners on base per year (715.5 to 674.5). Of course, this is a simplified approach, but it gets the point across.

    Now, if you compare RBI/AB for each player (Burrell having 86 RBI in 536 AB and Dunn having 74 RBI in 373 AB for the Reds), Dunn outpaces Burrell 119 to 97 in the RBI category for a 600 AB season (4 AB/game, 150 games), based on 2008 stats. So Burrell would hypothetically drive in 22 less runs over the course of the season, even with 41 more runners on base.

    Now, I understand that Burrell's offensive numbers are going to suffer because he hits behind Chase Utley (33 HR, 104 RBI) and Ryan Howard (48 HR, 146 RBI), while Dunn hit behind Brandon Phillips (21 HR, 78 RBI) and Ken Griffey Jr. (18 HR, 71 RBI between the Reds and White Sox), so we can compare numbers that aren't necessarily (I use that term carefully) a function of a player's teammates. This is not entirely true, as batting averages tend to rise as there are runners on base (look it up if you don't believe me).


    Dunn's OPS (On Base + Slugging) for the Reds was .901, Burrell's was .874.

    With Burrell having better protection batting behind him in his lineup, Dunn had .265 K/PA (plate appearance) (he struck out 26.5% of the time) and .177 BB/PA. Burrell had .213 K/PA and .160 BB/PA.

    Dunn had a higher OBP and higher SLG than Burrell in respective home ballparks that have virtually the same overall dimensions, and have given up the most homeruns over the last two seasons. Sure, Dunn struck out 5.2% more often than Burrell, but he also hit a homerun every 11.66 AB to Burrell's 16.24 AB. That's a 39.3% better clip.

    And most would trade some power for average, but Burrell hit just 17 points higher than Dunn. It's not like we're comparing a .320 hitter to a .230 hitter.

    Offensively, the edge goes to Dunn...let's look at defense.

    In 141 games in 2008 in left field, Dunn made 8 errors in 252 chances- a .968 FPCT for a left fielder is not good. Burrell made 2 errors in 216 chances- a much improved .991 FPCT, but that does not necessarily mean he is better defensively.

    The numbers say that Burrell is the better fielder, but most experts would agree there is not too big a difference between the two. Remember, you can't be charged with an error on a ball that you can't get to, and neither Adam Dunn nor Pat Burrell is very fleet of foot.

    All in all, I would take Dunn's left handed bat over Burrell's right handed bat, even with our lefty heavy lineup. But, I don't want Dunn back either, so far that reason, I don't want Burrell.

    What we need is someone who will hit 20-25 homeruns but will hit for average as well, not a "swing for the fences" kind of guy.

    Bruce is supposed to turn into this guy from the left side of the plate, and Votto is already there. From the right side, if Brandon Phillips can cut down on his K's (93 last year), he could raise his average into the .280's and hit 25-30 HR's.

    Here's an idea....resign Hairston. He hit .326 in 284 PA last year, and he's not going to command a huge salary because of his history of injuries and his age; he is, however, serviceable as a platoon player along with someone like Norris Hopper in the outfield, and can nearly fill the role that Ryan Freel had played for the Reds.

    Sure, Hairston isn't going to hit a bunch of homeruns, and neither is Keppinger, but they hit for average. Hopper is as fast a player as there is, and remember, we're (hopefully) getting Alex Gonzalez back. He should add a little thump to the right side of the plate. Hairston and Hopper could combine for probably 10-15 HR, Gonzo should hit close to 20, and Phillips has the ability to hit 30. Don't forget about Encarnacion, as he had his best offensive (and defensive) year of his career last year, and Ramon Hernandez should provide some offense from both sides of the plate.

    In summary, it's not all about power from the right side, but more about offense in the form of improved average from both sides of the plate. Getting rid of Dunn (and Griffey) has done that, and in time, the players that we have can develop into the players we need. The Rays did it without a megastar slugger (except mmmmaaaayyyybbbeeee Carlos Pena, but that's stretching it) and without a .300 batter, but they were consistent hitters and won games late with a good rotation and good bullpen, which leads me to my final point...

    PLEASE don't suggest that we should trade Bailey for Dye to fill that left field void... We would get him for one year. Which is more likely- the Reds win in the NL Central with the Cubs as strong as they are with only the acquisition of Jermaine Dye in 2009, or Bailey becoming a serviceable pitcher (or maybe the ace he is supposed to be) over the next four or five years?
  12. Burell is pricey and nothing but a right handed hitting Adam Dunn.
  13. Although Burrell strikes out less than the Dunnster you are right. The triple A guy Drew Stubs will hopefully be a candidate maybe even mid next year, but in the mean time who?
  14. I have heard reports that Stubbs has actually struggled quite a bit, batting in the low to mid .200's with little power. Coaches say he just needs time to get his stroke back.

    In the meantime, I think we stick with what we've got, since we're not one player away from winning the Central.

    I would play Dickerson in center, Bruce in right, and a platoon of Hairston (if we sign him) and Hopper in left, with the odd man out spelling the other two every once in a while.

    It's time the Reds try to change from a station to station power team, which they haven't been very good at, to a speed team/small ball team, and those players mentioned above can provide that.