IF I were to try this week, it would be in the Sandusky river. You'll probably only need a 1/8 oz. jig because it is so low. There is more that plays into the walleye coming up the rivers than water temperature, but to each his or her own.
70 degrees and thunderstorms Friday is going to raise the temp of the river water significantly. Perhaps a push of fish will come up, but I still maintain that in 2012 when we had no winter, there were very few fish that were caught before March 10th. I fished 5 times from February 20th-March 6th. I caught one legal walleye (17" fish) and a bunch of suckers. The water was 40 degrees on the first trip, and 49 degrees on the 5th trip. Aren't those ideal conditions? There should have been fish there, right? The water temperature was perfect! But they weren't there, and quite honestly that year sucked, because after the purging deluge in March, they all came (and went) at once. Five days of heavy stringers and then POOF! Gone...with 82 degree days by the end of the month and algae on the bottom (and white bass) by April 15th.
I would much prefer the fish show up like they do about 95% of the time, and that is around March 10th or thereabouts, with limits coming by St. Patrick's Day, and the run peaking about two weeks after that, but still good enough numbers to keep me interested until around May 10th.
I'm not saying it can't, or won't happen. What I am saying is that I don't want it to happen right now because the conditions are not right for a successful spawn. Why? We will undoubtedly have the annual "flushing" of the river that occurs whereby Fort Wayne and everywhere West gets 3-6" of rain in a very short time, sending the river up to 587' and beyond. In most years, this is a GREAT thing as it purges the river of trash, logs, debris, etc. etc. Once it starts to recede, the fish come up en masse. As the water continues to drop (and warm) the spawning conditions improve, and we get a good spawn in the river.
IMO, the number of fish in the rivers pales in comparison to what it was prior to 2012. It's not the same, and honestly speaking it's not even close. We fished ideal conditions last year on many occasions and were unsuccessful for the most part. Sure, there were guys who did well when the water got high for a week, but other than that...I saw a heck of a lot of empty stringers coming off the island last year.
And yes, I know there are fisherman that are better at this than I am, and I tip my cap to them and their outside-in fish catching abilities. Good luck to you all, and be careful when you go down there because no matter what 40 degree water is still damn cold.
And Redhunter.....don't lose a nut finding that leak, and if Buttonwood ain't broke, stay over there.